The Florida Derby

To Florida we go for, what has been over the last five years, the most important prep race for the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro, Big Brown, Quality Road and Ice Box have taken the Florida Derby. This year it's between Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty and the aptly named sprint sensation Flashpoint. That's Uncle Mo above who will not run in Florida against his stablemate Stay Thirsty. This year's prep races started with a bang in the Fountain of Youth and have since petered out with mostly lackluster performances. Maybe I'm not being fair to horses like Watch Me Go and Pants on Fire. I'm sure their connections don't share my opinion. Still, the breakout performance I've been waiting for, I'm still waiting for. And maybe that just means I haven't been looking in the right places. Right now Uncle Mo's Breeder's Cup race seems the best. But there'll be a lot of speed in the Kentucky Derby and Mo will have to rise to the occasion and not let up.  He certainly looks and runs like a champ.

The powers that be at Gulfstream usually scrape the track for their big day of racing culminating in the Grade I Florida Derby. And maybe there's a connection between the foot issues previous winners have had and maybe not. I hope they don't scrape it. We don't need another Santa Anita. Here are my selections for the big race.

Flashpoint will undoubtedly set the pace. I can't see the connections trying anything new with this guy. Soldat should be in good shape and have good position on him. The question is where will Dialed In be? Closers have done poorly this prep season, but if Soldat and Flashpoint lock horns he could fly by. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are gonna have to beat me. I don't like either. One could hit the board if Flashpoint burns up. So for me it's between the two prep sensations: Soldat and Dialed In. I'll go with:

Soldat
Dialed In

btw My cat Nikita is starting to get angry about the fact I keep painting horses, so I told her I would put a picture of her on my blog.

Tampa Bay and Timely Writer

By threatening to bring Uncle Mo to the Tampa Bay Derby while cajoling Gulfstream to write an overnight to fit his star, Todd "What me Worry" Pletcher has effectively carved out two soft spots for his horses Brethren and Uncle Mo through clever bait and switch. All of this comes as he releases his statement about the Life at Ten debacle, when he and his jockey allowed an unfit horse to run in a Breeder's Cup race. Let's start with Uncle Mo.

The strategy for the 2YO champ is to hold, not improve, form. He will not stretch out, but regress in his first start against 5 other no-name horses, most supplemented, looking for black type, but not necessarily a win. Maybe this strategy will pay off. But why not use the typical prep races to get to the Derby? Horses are scared of him; he would get a soft spot no matter where he debuted. Team Pletch says it's the surface of Gulfstream being so similar to his training facility, but what sort of advantage is that if you're not going for the win just to build form? We'll have to wait and see how this goes.

Brethren gets the benefit of Mophobia in Tampa. This was a great race last year with Rule, Schoolyard Dreams and Odysseus duking it out. This year's iteration doesn't hold the same competitive field. If you bet exactas like me, the only viable strategy is keying the Winstar colt and going for the tri. Bill Mott, who still seems awkward on the trail has a young colt on the rail and Chad Brown also has a contender. I'll be looking at those as well as Beamer. Meanwhile in the shadow of Florida, debuts Jaycito at Santa Anita. He's long been heralded by the blue-eyed devil Bob Baffert. It'll be interesting to see what he can do over that ludicrously fast strip. Has to prove he's not a mental case. I'm not convinced, but I wanna see some contenders so let's go Jaycito!  

The Gotham and Thawing Hawthorne

The Gotham has come up sort of weak this year. Todd Pletcher debuts Stay Thirsty, a Bernardini colt that hasn't shown he can stay, but seems to have the foundation and certainly the genes to begin a very powerful 3YO campaign. I think he might be a little short in here and I like Graham Motion's colt Toby's Corner, though he may be a little green. When he finally switched leads in the Whirlaway, he rebroke and pulled away. I'm hoping he can do that again. Meanwhile Uncle Mo is training forwardly for his first start next week in the underwhelming Timely Writer, written as a gift for the champion 2YO. Dialed In will run in an allowance at GP this Sunday, going 9 furlongs. And Soldat gets a rest after a nice run in the Fountain of Youth. Those are the three top contenders right now, but Oaklawn and Santa Anita may sprout some notables. I'm keeping a close watch on Jaycito and Elite Alex.

Hawthorne had to cancel racing next Tuesday due to lack of entrants. I really don't know what this means for the family-owned oval. Will they be able to keep the lights on with a smaller meet? It seems like both supply and demand are now waning in Stickney. It was probably unavoidable. I went a couple weeks ago to see a slate of claimers and it was the limpest racing I'd seen in a while, not only were they plodding, but there was no fighting for the wire. I don't know who still has a string on the south side, but clearly Janks has pulled out. Chris Block rarely has anything. Catalano must have a few stalls. Ness seems to have moved to Tampa. The game is changing in Stick, thanks to the diminishing carrot -- the 10k purse.

Howdy everyone. Sorry I've been remiss. I'm still pinching myself over Giant Oak's massive run in the Donn. He got by that wall of horses and there was no horse in front to sidle up to, so he hit the wire. And he looked majestic doing so. Unfortunately, my watercolor is apropos of nothing other than my fascination lately with watching Goldikova races. The Queen Anne is really something. How did Paco Boy not win that race? He had all the momentum; you see it over and over in races that last part of the stretch run where the race seems inevitable. Somehow the mare found a way to pause the time-space continuum for everyone but her. Her head so low. After the race the groom is waiting for her with pinched lips ready to kiss and she throws her head wanting nothing to do with his mortal adulation.

Anyway, Triple Crown season is heating up. We've already lost two promising colts -- Tapizar and Boys of Toscanova. So, do you still wanna buy that Uncle Mo future at 3-1? Dear God I hope not. Dialed In has given us the most exciting performance, falling out of the Holy Bull then slingshotting back in. The frenchman in the Irons is finally showing some aplomb with a congratulary tap along the flank. If you ever have trouble spotting a changed lead, watch the Holy Bull for what was one of the starkest changes I've seen.

This weekend is the Rising Star. Machen, Rogue Romance and Santiva all meet for this. Machen seems to be a lot like Dialed In. Green but ridiculously game. It should be fun to watch. One of the biggest debuts I'm looking forward to is To Honor and Serve. I don't know if my dubiousness is warranted. He's had everything his way so far. He's in most people's top 3, and I predict a precipitous drop.

Hawthorne is back up. They race Friday and Saturday only, which is ok by me. Do we really need four or five days of racing in February? I wouldn't mind it in April, and speaking of the cruelest month. The Illinois Derby has slashed its purse in half. This is gonna be a silly race most likely, but you never know. It's not like many were using it when it was half a mil. Wish I knew why. The continual purse reductions are pervasive in Illinois, bringing the slots argument to the fore. I hate slots, and I'd love it if they could get past it. Even if it meant less racing. But the economic realities are stark and we need to keep people breeding in Illinois. There's no easy answer. I'll keep an open mind. Wish we could snag that money in escrow that the boats promised IL racing, but lets face it the type of operations that run slots cannot be trusted in any way. They're scum.

Lord Of Misrule

Jaimy Gordon's head swirled with the disparate voices that coalesced on the manure-soaked backstretch of a small West Virginia bullring of a racetrack. After many years, she decided to let them out. In the 70s she worked on the backstretch of a dead-end track with a criminal boyfriend who trained low-end claimers, immersing herself in the dregs of the racing world before moving on to Yale to study writing. Usually that trajectory works the other way, but somehow she escaped the doom that surrounds the characters in her amazing new work Lord of Misrule that has gone on to win the National Book Award.

Gordon hadn't even dressed for or prepared any remarks for the improbable win she scored at the ceremony. The publisher never dreamed this book would return much in the way of profit, but it has. And the fact that it did offers hope for all writers who follow their passions and their richest insights without gearing the work to any target audience. That if your work is great, it's greatness will come through just like the roan on the cover of the book. 

2010

Who knows why people are debating Horse of the Year. The greatest thing horseracing does for this planet is ensure a healthy breed of horse. When America searched her conscience for a reason to restore the sport with legal wagering in the middle of the 19th century, ensuring good stock and proper animal husbandry was the sport's saving grace. Zenyatta furthered the case for her breed and her sport far more than any other horse in this young century. Her magnetic personality and power are positive, untarnished inspiration -- not always easy traits to find in an athletic hero. Her value to the sport can't be quantified, but we can and should award her Horse of the Year.   

HAWTHORNE

It was fifty degrees and sunny on the last day of the meet -- for a few races any way. Timmy Thorton took down the riding title (and perhaps celebrated too early -- anyone know why he was taken off all his mounts after he notched the title?) Joel Berndt won the training title. It was a good meet. Hawthorne really took advantage of the small fields other tracks offered. I'm not sure that's good for the future of racing, but it's good for the future of Hawthorne.

Junior Big A Alvarado

Over the past few years, Arlington's races haven't always been scintilatinig affairs with Calabrese and Catalano stacking the deck for their respective told-you-so titles. Playing the claim game mercilessly, buying for 10 dropping to 5, etc. etc. But one thing that has been really fun to watch has been the emergence of Junior Alvarado.

I was watching a 2YO race at Aqueduct today, trying to avoid christmas shopping. It was a two turn race, the course was playing fast. He was on the second choice from the hot Violette barn (It was race 3). Jeremy Rose was on the first choice. Neither made the lead, but Rose kept moving his horse forward, ensuring the race wouldn't be stolen maybe. Alvarado often got penned in, as jocks were thrusting their horses to the inside and outside of him, he sat chilly. He wouldn't get first go at the leader around the turn but he would have horse under him and a clear lane three wide. In the stretch he pounced with a little urging. But his 2YO didn't want to decimate the slowing horse along the rail. So Junior gave him a slight tap as a reminder then went back to a steady hand on the reins. It was perfect.

Maybe it was watching the Edgar Futurity last week that's made me sensitive to the way jocks ride 2YOs. The power and the aggression are there in both human and equine athletes; how smart you are in channeling it makes all the difference. Easy said, but watch the replay to see how it's done.

Hawthorne Happnins

Tomorrow is the Jim Edgar Futurity. Yes, our shrewd, former governor actively supports the horsemen of Illinois, even has a small string. I imagine if our current governor Quinn allows slots at the track, he too will have a stakes race named after him. But enough about politics. I've speedcapped the races for Saturday and have some picks for all my fans out there. If anyone was playing today, it was wise to go with the longshots. My picks envision a more formful afternoon at the oval. I'm gonna key the Kitten horse in the Futurity. How nice of Catalano to involve the Ramsey family in the Hawthorne fold. It's all about family there. Let's get to the picks:

Race 6 Mdn 24k:

I like Jamie Ness's first-timer 8 Mastman. I've always liked Mizzen Mast colts, and this 2YO looks like he could be ready at first asking. This barn isn't great with first timers but I like the outside draw, and if he can track my second choice 10 Lost Forty, and pounce like his poppa, then he should get his picture taken. Lost Forty keeps improving and has raced against nice fields. He could wire if the track is playing to speed, but he really should have won last. 

Race 7 Edgar Futurity:

2 Next Kitten has shown grit in all his races and like many Kittens closes nicely; however there isn't much speed. There also isn't a tremendous amount of quality; however there are three others that I'll put below the kitten in a keyed tri box. Those fellows are 10 Table Games from the connections that brougt us Giant Oak, 9 Domain's Rap from the Becker barn looks to be one of the few with good tactical speed and 3 Forbidden Forest. Give a closer look into the Forest if Lost Forty does well in the previous race. He's always been in contention and I suspect Thorton to start heating up.

Race 8 5k:

The Catrman sends up another chalky entry in Wistful Smile. You won't get much value, but there's a good longshot to place under him, maybe even box if you're feelin lucky. That horse is Southern Mudd, who loves the dirt at Hawthorne.

Best of luck on Edgar day.

How the 5k Claimer Saved Hawthorne

What do handicappers really care about? Thrilling races? Not really. Fair playing tracks? Definitely not. Big stakes races? Maybe. Large fields? Ding ding ding YES! This is the key to the capper's heart -- or so says the handle at Hawthorne. With drastic purse cuts and a 4-day meet that cut out Sunday, Hawthorne has gone lean to attract the moldering core of railbirds who demand value. And they have succeeded. But what does this mean for Illinois horseman -- the ones that didn't leave?

Maybe it helped push Chris Block into going after the big races. Over the weekend he took down a Grade II and a Grade I in Louisville. I can't think of a trainer who's more deserving. He's also done OK at Hawthorne, but the exodus of good trainers and stock has been hastened by the lack of pecuniary enticement. Maybe that's not a terrible thing that the horses are heading down south to places like Tampa and Calder. Fair Grounds too. I'd rather be there, though there are no state restricted races they can sweep up to sweeten the idea of breeding in Illinois, but what are you gonna do? (This is where you say "Slots Railbird! Stop being dense!)

I guess my biggest fear would be that once you cut purses like this, you have no chance of getting trainers back that have moseyed their strings to sunnier climbs. But, that seemed to be inevitable. 5k claiming races aren't as fun to watch trackside, but attendance wasn't really surging in Stickney either. So, they did what had to be done. I haven't capped many days at Hawthorne because I don't like 5k claiming races much. But I still like the brown feel of Hawthorne in winter, listening to the old timers' bedraggled lungs belting out numbers, the latinos chirping at TV screens and the smokestacks sending noxious plumes over the south side.

GIANT OAK to the rescue

The Clark Handicap ushered out the 2010 season, which like the race went out swinging. Somehow through the illuminated dust-up Giant Oak's big run finally came through. Not first to the wire, Giant Oak has always been a gentlemanly horse, GO won thanks to the contrary nature of Successful Dan who learned the price of Success at all costs: a DQ. Dan's French cargo, Julien Leparoux, got three days for failure to control his bump- and grind-happy mount. Watching the race it looked like Successful Dan might have been reacting to some very precarious angling by the ten horse, but in his efforts he blasted the surging Redding Coillery about three times. Speaking of Redding, he kept away from the front end and was running a very smart race. Keep your eyes on him if he sticks around.

Zenyatta's loss in the Breeders Cup Classic will probably define the year. Though the game in Illinois faces bigger losses if the huge purse cut at Hawthorne and the looming charge of the one-armed bandit point to the future. How ironic that an Illinois Bred, Giant Oak, should take down the G.I Clark Handicap just as Hawthorne's purse cuts which support Illinois-breds takes a hit.

I've said before, I'm not excited about slots making their way onto the oval. The cheaper the criminal the gaudier the patter -- one of my favorite lines from the Maltese Falcon sums up my sentiments for the prospect of slots. But that's just my snobbery. The real problem strings back to the complicated nature of horse racing in America, which was for a long while given the lone provenance of legal gambling. It was provided this because it was able to use our more base, human nature to promote the bettering of our equine stock. We needed to do more than award 4-H blue ribbons at state fairs to keep our animal husbandry up to snuff. Since gambling, like the rest of technology and modern world, has unfettered itself from the horse, the racing industry's perils continue. Maybe a complete rethinking of the Illinois meets and the idea that less is more might be the answer, but most in the industry disagree.

Unfortunately I have no answer. I'd love to see the tracks hold off the bandits, but that thinking is very wishful.

Breeders Cup Recap

I haven't blogged in while. While the national economy has petered, the railbird's free time has come under fire. I've been a passive fan, fans. Giant Oak lost, Goldikova won -- not much has changed. A lot has happened though. The Breeders Cup was pretty fascinating this year, thanks mostly to the queen Zenyatta. Does she go down as a horse of the ages? She does. Don't listen to fools who suggest that the fact that much of her career was on sythetic diminishes or even qualifies more narrowly any of her achievements. Kincsmen's record as best racemare remains, but Zenyatta sits second alongside Miss Woodford.

Bad Behavior

So what's worse Borel's rage or team Pletcher's incompetence? Life at Ten raced while not fit, and it should have been avoided. It's all still under investigation. I should reserve judgment till all the info is in. But watching her break after the jockey stated on national tv that she wasn't her usual self was very disturbing. 

I wasn't all that disturbed by the jockey fight. It's hard to blame someone for rage when you put them and others in real danger. Race riding. It wasn't your typical Castellano ride nor typical Borel antics. I'd be lying if I said it wasn't entertaining.