What Happened that Night He Tore His Nostril?

Orb

Orb was the epitome of a sophomore, a wise fool, gifted with stride but unable to unleash it effectively. Shug wasn't going to race him in the Fountain of Youth, but changed his mind (losing his wunderkind jock, Joel Rosario, who had committed to another horse for the race thinking Orb would not run). For whatever reason Shug changed his mind and Orb took down Violence in a thrilling stretch duel that was easily the most exciting prep race this season. Violence would come out with an injury and Orb who'd somehow torn his nostril in his stall a few weeks before would take this win and never lose again. McGaughey still unconvinced he had a champion.

Can the difference between someone like Pletcher and McGaughey be epitomized by a wardrobe malfunction? How bout a bad equipment decision? For whatever reason, Pletcher decided to outfit Palace Malice in blinker for Derby 139 and he would run off with the race, smashing it to bits with a scorching pace. Collateral damage included Pletcher's Verrazano who was too close to the burning pace. This was fine for Orb who was guided without hitch down the stretch wearing the track over his coat, but having no pause to that opening stride that swallowed everyone.

Betting? Go cold on some trifectas today and have no regrets. Have fun. Don't be clever. Get absorbed by a storyline. I like the old Claiborne v. Phipps battle. Departing and Orb grew up close to each other. Orb is on another level, but Departing is ready to step up. And I like itsmyluckyday. I realize the danger in taking this guy who needs a certain track, but why not. I've loved him and had fun watching him.

Orb
Departing
Itsmyluckyday

Kentucky Derby 139 Selections

Normandy Invasion by Barkley Hoffman

I'm staying with the push-button hero Verrazano. Most of my bets will use him over Orb and Normandy Invasion. Orb has worked lights out, but will need a clean trip. Normandy Invasion has an amazing stride and I'm hoping he's closer to the pace in this one. Vyjack and Java's War make it into the funnies. I'm gonna oppose Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday on distance and Revolutionary I think will find trouble again. Good luck to everyone and happy Derby Day!

Verrazano
Orb
Normandy Invasion

1- Black Onyx
2- Oxbow
3- Revolutionary
4- Golden Soul
5- Normandy Invasion
6- Mylute
7- Giant Finish
8- Goldencents
9- Overanalyze
10- Palace Malice
11- Lines of Battle
12- Itsmyluckyday
13- Falling Sky
14- Verrazano
15- Charming Kitten
16- Orb
17- Will Take Charge
18- Frac Daddy
19- Java's War
20- Vyjack

Java's War

Java's War by Randy Pfeil

The Blue Grass Stakes was probably the most exciting race I've seen live. And it was won by Java's War in the last step. Palace Malice seemed to be home free as they turned, but Keeneland makes front-runners earn the wire. Palace Malice's stride was shortening, he'd changed leads more than he should have, all while Java was inhaling ground out over the center of the track, swallowing Malice just at the wire where his jock, Julien Leparoux, crop in hand, pumped his fist in the Lexington sunlight.

Mylute - The Charcoal Carrying Rosie

There's a new angle for me: Don't bet horses I can't paint. Mylute and Itsmyluckyday would qualify. Mylute is a gorgeous charcoal colt, but beyond looks and a good jock there isn't too much to love. He ran well in Louisiana but that race was marred and he just happened to be in the right place. Which isn't without merit, but he also should have gotten by Revolutionary. He's not likely to have another chance like that. When I started painting Mylute I saw a lot of upside, but the more I looked at what he's done, his breeding, etc. the less I liked. He is a looker though and I like his trainer. 

Revolutionary

REVOLUTIONARY

The one hundredth running of the Louisiana Derby was chaos down the stretch. It lacked a Hero of Order maybe. Or maybe that hero was Revolutionary. Kind of a tepid hero though. Revolutionary has reigned over races that have fallen apart. There was a nice duel with Mylute at the end, but we haven't seen a truly brilliant performance. We have seen courage and heart, and he makes the top ten.

Orb

It's always nice to see a Shug McGaughey horse on the trail. He's not fixated on the Derby and even seemed a little surprised by the fast growth of Orb who hung on for a nice win in the Fountain of Youth. Violence on the inside there came out of the race injured after running the rest of the field off their feet in the early stages. Joel Rosario hopped off Orb for this race, but made up for that mistake by getting on Vyjack. 

Vyjack

We have a gelding on the trail. Everyone loves a gelding even if he comes from a barn racing may not be willing to embrace. Vyjack is maturing and showing dimension. With Rosario in the irons he made a really wonderful lunge at the end to clear the overmatched Gothm field. At the end of the race I wasn't sure what to make of his chances on the trail. But his chances are growing in the nebulous search for a 3YO king.

Verrezano

Not sure if this watercolor takes in the size and flanks of this big boy. He's prodigious. He stumbled a bit grabbing a quarter out of the gate and was dragged off the rail by Velazquez but that raw talent and high cruising speed was there in the Tampa Bay Derby. He should destroy the field in the Wood. So far the hype seems warranted.

Flashback

It's still too early for me, but with the three day weekend I thought I'd get started on my Derby horses. Flashback is the opposite of battle-tested, but he's looked flawless. I was hoping that with the new point system there would somehow be a way to force the big stables to meet more along the trail, maybe Arkansas or Louisiana. But that has happened much lately, though the Risen Star could be a nice proxy war.

Post San Felipe
Flashback never got settled after Leparoux fought him early to make sure he didn't get boxed in. He locked eyeballs with Goldencents and the Felipe turned into an inferno. Hear the Ghost was able to snatch victory in the end. Giving Nakatani another shot at winning the elusive American Classic.

So what does this mean for Flashback? Very hard to tell. I go back and forth on whether or not I should trust a horse that tires at a mile and a sixteenth. My inclination is that it's not good at all, but we get to see if he can rebound in his final prep. He will need to take a big step forward -- both he and Leparoux.

Eboulissante

Eblouissante 

I've only recently learned how to pronounce this filly's name. For some reason I want to put the L somewhere later. She is out of Vertigineux (I'm pretty sure I still can't spell that right), which makes her half sis to Zenyatta. And she's by Bernandini, the stud responsible for Zenyatta's first foal. But anyone wondering genealogically about behavior and traits has to see some nifty comparisons between this scopy filly and her half sister, right down to the white cotton coming out of her ears meant to calm her. 

She's the perfect horse for Illinois, because you can't bet her. There's no way to make money off her success. And in Illinois, you can't bet anymore. Well not online or at a track. So perfect match. 

Anyway, I've hitched on to the hype of this filly because she is a lot of fun to watch. It's hard to say just how talented she is right now, but you get to see a filly learning how to run if you follow her now. She was slow to start and green in the stretch, playing the whole time. Still no problem dispatching a pretty mediocre at best field. Next stop is a Grade I for her, which should be a lot fun to watch. But that's why I like the Derby Trail so much. Watching horses learn is fascinating and extremely exciting.