Recap

Well I'm 5 for 5 on the Derby trail. Can almost retire and live off my corpulance. It was a good week for race fans starting with Zenyatta and her foal. Mares can react in so many different ways to their foals, some are terrified, some have a natural elegance. Zenyatta is the latter.

Creative Cause was the sensation on the track. He gave an explosive performance and still looked a bit green heading into the stretch. He's gonna be lethal. In Tampa we had an OK race with Prospective a little keener thanks to the blinks. The Rebel is this weekend and Secret Circle will likely be the favorite. Until then eat lots of kale and shower regularly.

Tampa Bay and San Felipe

Santa Anita and Tampa Bay: two strange tracks will have some prime 3YOs coursing through them. Well not  Tampa Bay. It's been a horrible year for this track that has in the past so smartly picked up on the mistakes Gulfstream has made. But you can't expect Gulfstream to screw up all the time and sometimes you just can't escape the pitfalls of being a claiming oval.

So let's start in Florida. Take Charge Indy who looked great coming in second to El Padrino at Gulfstream decided to stay home after pulling the ten hole. This is a headscratcher to say the least. Byrne assures everyone the colt is in great shape, just thought he'd try the incredibly tough Floriday Derby instead (and I'm betting Illinois Derby is where he ends up). Not sure what to make of this, but really wanted to see this guy do well. That leaves a speedy number from Pletcher, the Mark Casse colt Prospective grabs the rail and Kenealy's Battle Hardened gets lucky 7. I'm gonna use those three, giving Prospective a slight edge. 

Prospective

Battle Hardened

Sprig Hill Farm

On to the other coast, the one that isn't the suture to Africa. Santa Anita. It's really a battle between the unseasoned phenom Bodemeister and the very seasoned Creative Cause. There are so many other nice horses in here as well. Liaison tries get his groove back. Empire Way will try to keep improving and seems to be on the right trajectory. Rousing Sermon has to show more but very well may. And there's American Act too. I'm gonna go with the seasoned runner in Creative Cause, even though he doesn't seem to win all that much. 

Creative Cause

American Act

Empire Way

The State of this Union is Sound

The pedigree questions will dog Union Rags from now until the first Saturday in May, and there's another bruiser in Louisiana with pin-fired calves named El Padrino who's just getting warmed up. Out west Baffert holds most of the cards. His speedsters have been progressing in the morning. It looks to be a good year. This weekend we have the San Felipe which lost a little luster with the injury to Out of Bounds, but is still star-studded and the Tampa Bay Derby, which is the race that announces that it's time to get a little serious. 

Picks to come at the end of the week. Hope those in Chicago are enjoying the warm weather.  

Hansen Wins! Out of Bounds off the trail

The fun of watching the trail is watching these young horses learn how to race. Some are beasts before they even know what they're doing. I'm talking about horses like Big Brown who couldn't really run straight and looked awkward annihilating fields in his early races. Hansen had to prove mental prowess this past week and it would have been nice to see him rate, but his tactical speed would have been unmatched on this speed-favoring Aqueduct. He actually did both. He relaxed, rated, and always seem to be within himself while separating himself from this field. It wasn't much of a field, but it doesn't matter. This race moves him up and validates the BC race.

The downside to the trail is injury. We want to see barns not named Pletcher or Baffert get nice runners and while Harty is no stranger to the Triple Crown with horses like Colonel John, he's still a refreshing trainer to read about. His lambaste of Mr Hot Stuff was pretty funny a few years back. He's every bit as honest and self-deprecating as you'd expect from an Irishman. So I was sad to read that his current big name 3YO, Out of Bounds, suffered a condyular fracture that takes him off the trail. 

Gotham gets fattened purse

Those that couldn't wait for racing to bite back into the casino pie have their day. In New York. Not so in Kentucky where purses have moved downward just like the spring tornadoes which didn't wait till spring this year. Maybe it's time to talk racing. The big white Hansen makes his second effort tomorrow in the Gotham after a somewhat inauspicious opener to his sophomore season. I was ready to oppose, but have come around. He'll have little challenge on the front. And that's the place to be at Aquadirt. He drew poorly but it shouldn't matter. So my wagering scenarios key him over a few horses that look interesting. Horses like Maan who stretches out for the first time. And there's the dick dutrow king and Crusader. Finally there's Pretension. I haven't been good at picking second place so I may spread thinner come post time. Probably heavy on exactas. Good luck.

Union Rags

The narratives are starting to form. It's too soon for them to be sensible, but there's no fun in being sensible. So now we have a glimmer of hope that our Triple Crown drought may soon be nourished by a horse named Union Rags. He's a big strapping fellow owned by the granddaughter of Andrew Wyeth who painted the above "Christina's World" (sans Union Rags). There's also the Barbaro v. Bernadini track, borne out tangentially in another Matz-trained horse battling a son of Bernardini (El Padrino). And speaking of El Padrino, it's time to recap this weekend's action.

The apex of the excitement over Union Rags' authoritative run is matched by the nadir of Algortithms scratch. It seems like he'll be off the trail, but maybe not. Let's hope for the best. The scratch diminished the field and Discreet Dancer simply couldn't stretch his legs over two turns so Union Rags didn't beat much, but he did look great in doing so; showing some tactical speed and just an overpowering stretch move without much urging after a long layoff. And he's grown. He's a big, powerful looking boy. Not green at all in the stretch, he looked ready to avenge his only loss.

My picks turned out to be pretty good. Not all that useful maybe. Next week I may demonstrate how I would wager.

Derby Trail 2012

It's been a while. Much has happened. Where do I start? I'll start with our most colorful hero this year -- Hansen. I thought he had a chance of beating Union Rags in the BC, but figured that would be his lone sparkle on the crown. Not winning first out this year may have proved me correct, but maybe not. Lots of excuses for that effort. And now that his owners have requested permission to dye his tail and mane blue for the Gotham Stakes I'm beginning to rue the idea of losing this roan's prominence on the trail. Apparently Hawthorne has written the owners a letter saying that they'll even provide the dye if they bring their speedy colt to Stickney. Fat chance, but they can't be blamed for trying.

This weekend we've got the Fountain of Youth and the Risen Star Stakes. The FOY has a small field thanks to the Pletcher duo scaring everyone away, but the Risen Star gets 11, though I think there's a coupled entry, so I'll need to look beyond the chalk to make anything out of it.

Risen Star
The initial excitement over seeing 11 entries is quickly quenched by the fact there are two coupled entries, and one pair is from the Jones barn. So you have a somewhat prohibitive fave in El Padrino (though there will be people 2nd guessing his dry track form) and to beat him you have some nice horses from the Jones barn -- that are paired!! Curses. I've decided I'm not gonna try to beat Elvis (his name around the barn) but will give Shared Property a strong look for second. Shared Property comes from one of my favorite barns: Amoss. He does well in Louisiana, and I expect this horse to close very well. Traffic could be an issue, as it was in his last when Mr Bowling and Z Dager got him by a combined half length. He was very wide that race, drawing the 13. He doesn't draw all that well here either, but if Goncalves can navigate a better trip (and he's skilled in this sort of thing) he could be bearing down on Elvis as the wire approaches. One of the Jones' horses will be there to complete the frame.

El Padrino
Shared Property
Mr. Bowling/Mark Valeski

Fountain of Youth
They break on the turn for this strange 8.5f race. Another bet-averse affair in Hallandale Flahrida. But a fun race nonetheless. One to take a stand. As a gambler you have to fight those sentimental ties, you have to plumb those gut feelings -- to make sure they're not just indigestion. I have staked my claim on Union Rags for some reason. Maybe it's because the owner is the granddaughter of American artist Andrew Wyeth. Maybe it was that gut loss to Hansen in the Juvenile that could have planted something in this horse that prevents him from ever missing the wire again. In any event, I like this guy a lot. But he'll have to do the most work on Sunday because not only could he need a race but he goes against a speedster from the Pletcher barn in Discrete Dancer. And, according to Beyer, the fastest 3YO so far: Algorithms who comes off a nice win in the Holy Bull (over none other than Hansen). But I'm taking a stand against that figure and that race. I think it's overvalued. But Algorithms is still a horse to respect. So, here's how I'd like em to finish, though it could go many ways and might not change my opinion on the horse's viability for the roses.

Union Rags
Discrete Dancer
Algorithms

Good Luck Everyone!

Mr. Hot Stuff

Triple Crown Settles Nothing

The Triple Crown Trail's favorites win percentage for this year is somewhere near 7.5%. Last year at Arlington favorites won about 37% of the time. No one was able to stand out and win consistently this year and there are many suggestions as to why. Steroids keeps coming up as the reason for slower times, and that's very possible, but doesn't exactly jibe with the number of broken bones suffered in the Derby if the second premise is that without roids you get sturdier stock. Really no scientifically sound conclusions can be drawn, but let the anecdotal flow right?

I haven't written in a while. Nothing really came into focus for me and I was pretty busy. I like Animal Kingdom a lot, even won a ticket on him at Arlington in his first race. I bet him to come in second with my nephew, and we cashed in on what would become a key maiden race involving Animal, Wilcox Inn (3rd in Breeders Cup) and a few others that have come along well. It was a grass race taken off the turf. Maybe out of rebellion to the old guard of American dirt, I've grown to like turf and all weather races. The recent test of champions, The Belmont, was won by the only horse who'd won on a sealed track prior to the Belmont. It was a strange race, always is, but when two of the classiest horses Animal Kingdom and Nehro saw their hopes compromised through a bump and bonechip in ankle respectively, the race would winnow down to tactical advantage. And this is what some dirt cappers like to see, finding an edge or a bias that the surface will produce to conquer the horse with more class and reputation (the favorite) and land you some long dough. I'm sure there are people who read the form and covered Ruler on Ice for that reason. It was tough watching Turbulent Descent lose too. I love this filly, but catching a front-runner on the slop was nearly impossible. Same went for the turf that day with merry-go-rounds undoing horses like Gio Ponti, who still showed a nice turn of foot but was not gonna catch the front-end thief.  

There's usually some fun stories with owners and trainers. I couldn't be happier for Graham Motion. I've always like his style. Unfortunately the owner (or head of a conglomerate) Barry Irwins keeps sounding off on silly things and comes out looking like a baby. But that doesn't change the fact that he chose some nice breeding tactics and made the right move placing Animal Kingdom in the Classics.

The Florida Derby

To Florida we go for, what has been over the last five years, the most important prep race for the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro, Big Brown, Quality Road and Ice Box have taken the Florida Derby. This year it's between Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty and the aptly named sprint sensation Flashpoint. That's Uncle Mo above who will not run in Florida against his stablemate Stay Thirsty. This year's prep races started with a bang in the Fountain of Youth and have since petered out with mostly lackluster performances. Maybe I'm not being fair to horses like Watch Me Go and Pants on Fire. I'm sure their connections don't share my opinion. Still, the breakout performance I've been waiting for, I'm still waiting for. And maybe that just means I haven't been looking in the right places. Right now Uncle Mo's Breeder's Cup race seems the best. But there'll be a lot of speed in the Kentucky Derby and Mo will have to rise to the occasion and not let up.  He certainly looks and runs like a champ.

The powers that be at Gulfstream usually scrape the track for their big day of racing culminating in the Grade I Florida Derby. And maybe there's a connection between the foot issues previous winners have had and maybe not. I hope they don't scrape it. We don't need another Santa Anita. Here are my selections for the big race.

Flashpoint will undoubtedly set the pace. I can't see the connections trying anything new with this guy. Soldat should be in good shape and have good position on him. The question is where will Dialed In be? Closers have done poorly this prep season, but if Soldat and Flashpoint lock horns he could fly by. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are gonna have to beat me. I don't like either. One could hit the board if Flashpoint burns up. So for me it's between the two prep sensations: Soldat and Dialed In. I'll go with:

Soldat
Dialed In

btw My cat Nikita is starting to get angry about the fact I keep painting horses, so I told her I would put a picture of her on my blog.

Tampa Bay and Timely Writer

By threatening to bring Uncle Mo to the Tampa Bay Derby while cajoling Gulfstream to write an overnight to fit his star, Todd "What me Worry" Pletcher has effectively carved out two soft spots for his horses Brethren and Uncle Mo through clever bait and switch. All of this comes as he releases his statement about the Life at Ten debacle, when he and his jockey allowed an unfit horse to run in a Breeder's Cup race. Let's start with Uncle Mo.

The strategy for the 2YO champ is to hold, not improve, form. He will not stretch out, but regress in his first start against 5 other no-name horses, most supplemented, looking for black type, but not necessarily a win. Maybe this strategy will pay off. But why not use the typical prep races to get to the Derby? Horses are scared of him; he would get a soft spot no matter where he debuted. Team Pletch says it's the surface of Gulfstream being so similar to his training facility, but what sort of advantage is that if you're not going for the win just to build form? We'll have to wait and see how this goes.

Brethren gets the benefit of Mophobia in Tampa. This was a great race last year with Rule, Schoolyard Dreams and Odysseus duking it out. This year's iteration doesn't hold the same competitive field. If you bet exactas like me, the only viable strategy is keying the Winstar colt and going for the tri. Bill Mott, who still seems awkward on the trail has a young colt on the rail and Chad Brown also has a contender. I'll be looking at those as well as Beamer. Meanwhile in the shadow of Florida, debuts Jaycito at Santa Anita. He's long been heralded by the blue-eyed devil Bob Baffert. It'll be interesting to see what he can do over that ludicrously fast strip. Has to prove he's not a mental case. I'm not convinced, but I wanna see some contenders so let's go Jaycito!