Mud

You never really know where a Midwestern storm in May will end up, but it now seems rain is imminent in Louisville. Lots of it. There is no straight way to play the mud, but often it favors the early speed and, of course, some horses seem to relish it while others can't pick their feet up on it. It's possible the mud could tire the front tier as well, so I'll hedge my position, but I've narrowed the field now to about five.

Super Saver
Devil May Care
Lookin at Lucky
American Lion
Conveyance

As the sagely Baffert said, it's more important to have the horse than to have the post. He said something like that.

Thursday -- The Works are In

The Buzz horses:
American Lion
Stately Victor
Super Saver
Sidney's Candy
Devil May Care
Mission Impazible


Toss:
Dublin
Backtalk
Noble's Promise
Line of David
Honeboykris

Picks That Will Change

Endorsement's last minute defection due to a condyular fracture that the connections may or may not have been suspicious of allows Backtalk in. He'll be a big longshot, but not as improbable as Mine That Bird last year. He did very well as a 2YO and probably left a race on the training track in New Orleans. With the favorites taking opposite poles, the Derby is even more wide open. 


Even though the shape of the race screams closer, I find myself drawn a bit to Conveyance and American Lion, especially American Lion. I'm also prone to suckerdom with the filly, but she's pretty fast and seems to be in perfect form. Supers Saver also seems primed, but I have to put some closers up. The photo of the victorious, mud-caked Icebox galloping out after the Florida Derby is etched in my head. And Mission Impazible's strong, improbable late run in New Orleans also lays in my head. MI wasn't all that fast and Icebox has been shelved for 6 months but their styles are propitious. Awesome Act will be covered for most of the race and with a nicely timed move could shine. Of course there's Stately Victor too, who appears to be this year's Wiseguy. He's a looker, for sure.


1. Lookin at Lucky
2. American Lion
3. Devil May Care
4. Conveyance
5. Super Saver
6. Awesome Act
7. Mission Impazible
8. Stately Victor
9. Noble's Promise
10. Icebox
11. Sidney's Candy
12. Dublin
13. Jackson Bend
14. Backtalk

The Filly Makes the Gate

Devil May Care is a beautiful filly who will not run for the lillies; she's going for the roses. Watching her work, she really moves elegantly and didn't seem to tire. She worked alone, which really shows her pure determination and will. She reminded me of Rags to Riches in that work, she just kept going. Steady headed. Grinding away. Will she have that composure on Derby day? I hope so.

The Works
Loved
Looking at Lucky
Devil May Care
American Lion
Conveyance
Super Saver

Hated
Sidney's Candy
Line of David
Endorsement's lack of work

Derby Week is Upon Us

The front wraps and shaved knees Eskendereya sported for the Wood proved harbingers for a dour news conference announcing the colt was "off" and would not run in the 136th Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya won with such grace and so within himself; still the scuttle about his leg problems from blogggers and Indian Charlie turned out to have merit. He was clearly the best of the crop, and I'm really bummed we won't get to see him run for the roses.

Velazquez who's Derby woes mirror Pletcher's loses his first shot on a Derby favorite. He'll try to make that a moot point, moving his tack onto the filly Devil May Care who's worked very well over the Churchill dirt. Though she's a longshot given her record against fillies (not colts). But so much of this race depends on form after the grueling preps. Who looks good the week of the Derby. So far Looking At Lucky has worked very well over the track and will go off the fave. His stablemate Conveyance has run the fastest, but the distance question and the poor Sunland Derby performance hang over him. You can expect him to keep the race honest and set it up for his more-lauded stablemate. I think he's gonna expose Sidney's Candy, but maybe I'm wrong.

I'll have more on the works throughout the week. And more watercolors. Time to get psyched railbirds!