Friday, June 21, 2013

Summer Begins at Arlington
The city of two seasons: of visible breath and swollen feet has finally swung back to swollen feet. I think the races this weekend are going to be slow, and not because the heat. Because it looks like a plodderfest this Saturday with low level claimers topped with conditional state allowances. It can't always be stakes races at Arlington. And if you look at say the Grade I Mother Goose this weekend at Belmont, well I'll take a full field of plodders over 4 fast fillies. Let's get started.
Race 2 
You have to choose between speed, form and jockey. Enemy Fire is the speed and he's who I think will win. News Bulletin is in good form but he's also lost to Enemy Fire in the past and the cut back in distance does him no favors. Finally, Kent Desormeaux gets in the irons of Truebill, a closer who will have too much work to do even in good hands. With the heat the poly could be playing slowly. Use this race as a barometer.

Enemy Fire
News Bulletin
Truebill

Race 3
A lot of old timers in this conditioned low-level claimer. Let's start with Pimm's O'clock, which is the British version of beer:30 (the lout's answer to what time is it). Pimm's is a ten year old that I'd love to see back in the winner's circle. I don't like the connections at all and have been frustrated with the way they've run. But at this level they could get it done. Next is Danny Miller's horse Sword and Shield who never seems to win but gets a big class break and cut back in distance but hasn't raced in many months. You won't find a win on his record over the past two years, but maybe just maybe. And if you like speed and a possible steal there's Mercadian who's been handling lesser animals as of late.

Pimm's O'clock
Sword and Shield
Mercadian

Race 4
Block sends a coupled entry into the race. Play the entry (1) on top, of course. Striking Hight is a nice horse, thrown to the wolves last out in a stakes race. Will he bounce back? Hard to say what it will do to his confidence. Shoot The Loop comes in off the layoff for Goldfine. He travels up in class after being on the bench, which isn't so great. I might try Lassell here.

Paired Entry (Laythatpistoldown and Fun on the Bayou)
Lassell
Striking Hight
Race 5
Cheap Maidens! Blu Cobalto looks poised to win, and Kinzig comes from a red hot barn but what's with Shadwell Stable dangling a Medaglio Doro named Eben Zabeel before the claim box? Anything can happen here, but I don't like taking Shadwell's droppings.

Blu Cobalto
Kinzig
Eben Zabeel

Race 6
Phew! Why do we have 11 races today? This is one of the nicest ones actually. on the turf we have some top shelf first level colts. Catalano has a gaudy 41% win record and a young Empire Maker colt who started with Baffert on the coast. Coastal Empire started out slow but the light may have turned on for him. This is a typical pattern with this sire. You're not gonna get odds though on a horse that isn't class tested. Dale Bennet, also not shabby with the wins has a nice horse on the rail stretching out to break through, Next Speaker.  Most of the money could end up with Mike Maker's Wings of Fortune who tried the Lexington with poor results, but at least showing how the trainer feels about this animal. I'll be looking to get a price on Beyond Compare.

Next Speaker
Beyond Compare
Coastal Empire

Race 7
Chris Block has a lot of catching up to do to get his win percentage to where it should be. He can do it here with The Best Option. Running second in his form cycle; he should improve a bit off last and gets a little more room to hit the wire. Masquerade also looks sneaky good. The one that will take all the money is Left a Message who gets big class relief and a cut back. She should be able to push her class over these, and I'll watch the tote to see what I'm gonna do but I'm hesitant to take a very short price off the long layoff.

The Best Option
Masquerade
Left a Message

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