Mylute - The Charcoal Carrying Rosie

There's a new angle for me: Don't bet horses I can't paint. Mylute and Itsmyluckyday would qualify. Mylute is a gorgeous charcoal colt, but beyond looks and a good jock there isn't too much to love. He ran well in Louisiana but that race was marred and he just happened to be in the right place. Which isn't without merit, but he also should have gotten by Revolutionary. He's not likely to have another chance like that. When I started painting Mylute I saw a lot of upside, but the more I looked at what he's done, his breeding, etc. the less I liked. He is a looker though and I like his trainer.

Revolutionary

REVOLUTIONARY

The one hundredth running of the Louisiana Derby was chaos down the stretch. It lacked a Hero of Order maybe. Or maybe that hero was Revolutionary. Kind of a tepid hero though. Revolutionary has reigned over races that have fallen apart. There was a nice duel with Mylute at the end, but we haven't seen a truly brilliant performance. We have seen courage and heart, and he makes the top ten.

Orb

It's always nice to see a Shug McGaughey horse on the trail. He's not fixated on the Derby and even seemed a little surprised by the fast growth of Orb who hung on for a nice win in the Fountain of Youth. Violence on the inside there came out of the race injured after running the rest of the field off their feet in the early stages. Joel Rosario hopped off Orb for this race, but made up for that mistake by getting on Vyjack. 

Vyjack

We have a gelding on the trail. Everyone loves a gelding even if he comes from a barn racing may not be willing to embrace. Vyjack is maturing and showing dimension. With Rosario in the irons he made a really wonderful lunge at the end to clear the overmatched Gothm field. At the end of the race I wasn't sure what to make of his chances on the trail. But his chances are growing in the nebulous search for a 3YO king.

Verrezano

Not sure if this watercolor takes in the size and flanks of this big boy. He's prodigious. He stumbled a bit grabbing a quarter out of the gate and was dragged off the rail by Velazquez but that raw talent and high cruising speed was there in the Tampa Bay Derby. He should destroy the field in the Wood. So far the hype seems warranted.

Flashback

It's still too early for me, but with the three day weekend I thought I'd get started on my Derby horses. Flashback is the opposite of battle-tested, but he's looked flawless. I was hoping that with the new point system there would somehow be a way to force the big stables to meet more along the trail, maybe Arkansas or Louisiana. But that has happened much lately, though the Risen Star could be a nice proxy war.

Post San Felipe
Flashback never got settled after Leparoux fought him early to make sure he didn't get boxed in. He locked eyeballs with Goldencents and the Felipe turned into an inferno. Hear the Ghost was able to snatch victory in the end. Giving Nakatani another shot at winning the elusive American Classic.

So what does this mean for Flashback? Very hard to tell. I go back and forth on whether or not I should trust a horse that tires at a mile and a sixteenth. My inclination is that it's not good at all, but we get to see if he can rebound in his final prep. He will need to take a big step forward -- both he and Leparoux.

Eboulissante

Eblouissante 

I've only recently learned how to pronounce this filly's name. For some reason I want to put the L somewhere later. She is out of Vertigineux (I'm pretty sure I still can't spell that right), which makes her half sis to Zenyatta. And she's by Bernandini, the stud responsible for Zenyatta's first foal. But anyone wondering genealogically about behavior and traits has to see some nifty comparisons between this scopy filly and her half sister, right down to the white cotton coming out of her ears meant to calm her. 

She's the perfect horse for Illinois, because you can't bet her. There's no way to make money off her success. And in Illinois, you can't bet anymore. Well not online or at a track. So perfect match. 

Anyway, I've hitched on to the hype of this filly because she is a lot of fun to watch. It's hard to say just how talented she is right now, but you get to see a filly learning how to run if you follow her now. She was slow to start and green in the stretch, playing the whole time. Still no problem dispatching a pretty mediocre at best field. Next stop is a Grade I for her, which should be a lot fun to watch. But that's why I like the Derby Trail so much. Watching horses learn is fascinating and extremely exciting. 

Taxi and JJ

From a photo of Taxi (on right) and JJ

Magna Fortuna (a k a Taxi, thanks to his foaling date of April 15) was set to run in a Maiden Special Weight on the Thursday before Christmas at Hawthorne. A storm carrying thunder and snow was expected to hit and slog the pre-holiday frenzy of Chicagoland; it was good enough reason to escape to Hawthorne and see this colt with the incredible story. His well-bred mother spent part of her pregnancy struggling to stand in a kill pen meant to ship north to Canada for slaughter, but was somehow rescued by a brave woman who persuaded a man to sell her to her for $300. Her foal, Magna Fortuna, would run under the 11 saddlecloth in the seventh race. You can read the story here. http://magnafortuna.weebly.com/the-beginning.html

I sat near the connections who seemed jovial surrounded by a tarantula of camera equipment, boom mics and lighting. They had good reason to be proud and tell their story. In front of me sat one of Hawthorne's crew who had a nice table set up with what appeared to be his nephews and nieces who were excited to not be at school enjoying a rare trip to the racetrack with hamburger plates that came with silver warming covers and individual bottles of ketchup and mustard. He was explaining what was going on after the horses left the gate, how no one seemed to want the lead and the frigid headwind that came with it, but watching the break was more exciting than any analysis for the kids whose awed reflections I could see in the window as the first vanguard began to separate. Hearing him explain the race made me think just how hard it is to put into words the feeling I get when I see a band of thoroughbreds rushing past me at nearly 40 mph. How you play this scene in your head using these sheets filled with numbers then are clobbered with the reality, the life of it.

Magna Fortuna would come in a non-threatening ninth. He didn't look bad; he just didn't really know what he was supposed to be doing. It was his first race. He ran with the pack and came back to be unsaddled in front of his adoring fans who didn't seem to care where he finished; just that he was able to start.      

Breeders' Cup Roundup

Marketing Mix by Gail Patejunas

 

The Railbird apologizes for not posting Saturday picks. For full dis I would not have had Trinniberg or Little Mike. This year's BC it was best not to post picks in advance unless you somehow knew there would be a fairly severe rail and speed bias. It forced trainers to change their strategies and strike the front at all costs. It looked like it was going to cost Shanghai Bobbie, but the rest of the 2YOS seemed to lag in the stretch with him, with the exception of the Redding horse with the annoying name.

Groupie Doll, Royal Delta and Wise Dan, none of whom speedsters, did well over ridiculously fast turf and dirt tracks. They are champions and proved it. Game On revealed the gaping hole in his armor. I thought he looked pretty lethargic in the post parade and laid off him. I thought Mucho Macho Man would have fared better, but take nothing from Fort Larned and his rider who celebrated his 28th birthday with a win in the Breeders Cup Classic.

So it was a good day, despite the biases. A few 2YOs bled, two of them from the Sadler barn (surprise, surprise). But no major incidents. Royal Delta showed she could run through a rough commute from Belmont and did so on the front end where we usually don't see her. The lasix debate will continue acrimoniously, but it was nice to see the champs do well.

Breeders's Cup Friday Picks

Awesome Feather

 by Robert Whitmore

 Very sad to read Worth Repeating has come up lame and will be scratched from the Marathon. I love the Marathon, but it's a very difficult race to handicap. I felt best about him, and may have to rethink the race.

Juvenile Filly Turf Sprint
Super 99 and Merit Man are hard to separate. Very little yield on either, but will try easing in to the festival with a chalky exacta and a cold beer.

Marathon
Atigun will be the favorite and it's hard to take the fave in a race like this. But this guy was right there (kinda sorta) with Paynter and Union Rags in the Belmont (before the 3YO division completely melted down). I feel like McPeek will have a few nice wins to close out the year. I also like Not Abroad. Should be enough pace to keep this honest; may the best stayer win!


Filly Juvenile Turf
Sky Lantern looks so good there's a temptation to single her on your ticket, but this is not a good race to single. These baby, lawnmowing fillies can grow quickly. Whatsdachances, trained by the rising star Chad Brown looks very promising and both Flashy Ways and Sustained have outside chances that could make a huge difference on horizontal bets.

Filly Juvenile
Executive privilege and Springs in the Air are big standouts in this. 

Filly and Mare Turf
I've loved Marketing Mix for awhile. She came up short at Arlington in the Beverly D., but rebounded nicely and seems to relish the California turf. The Fugue stands in her way. This European invader didn't make the trip for the California alfalfa. Finally, the win at Keeneland may have woken up In Lingerie.


Ladies Classic
What a race. I think you have to beat the queen, Royal Delta, but both Questing and Awesome Feather are fast enough. Are they classy enough?  

Breeders' Cup

Wise Dan

It's kind of like horseplayer Christmas. A couple weeks ago, I got to see Wise Dan mow down the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. He was in the same race that I saw last year, but Gio Ponti stole the show. I hadn't realized how imposing he was, or maybe I'm just grafting that onto him. I'm more excited to see him run in the Mile and take on England's Excelebration, not to mention Animal Kingdom, than any other race this weekend. It's funny how the Mile has come to be such a big race. Is it the perfect mix of American speed and European surface. The international aspect makes it great.

It isn't a truly international championship, not yet anyway. But it's trying, and part of that effort is the ban of lasix in 2YO races. And that's caused a few trainers to boycott, though not really all that many, just the loudmouth Mike Repole who really did have much to withold, and seems to threaten boycott over anything that doesn't go his way. Still American trainers aren't all that happy with the ban that keeps America in step with Europe. Then there's European trainers who don't like California Dirt and Turf, which are speed-friendly, full of kickback (the dirt) and All-American. Next year lasix will be banned in all races and the venue remains the same. So the BC might not be making anyone happy and may simply have to be resolute in that it's doing the right thing, but do we really have a scintillating Classic this year with Game On Dude proving or not proving he can win at Santa Anita? I kinda like Mucho Macho Man, but my picks are to come later. One of the benefits of Breeders Cup is that there's no need to scrounge for value. There's money in simply finding the winner. And my wagering strategy will be simple: to have fun and watch some great racing.